Following books by Malcolm Gladwell and Dan Ariely, noted economics
professor William L. Silber explores the Hail Mary effect, from its
origins in sports to its applications to history, nature, politics, and
business.
A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a Hail Mary
pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose -- the
risky throw might turn defeat into victory, or end in a meaningless
interception. Rodgers may not realize it, but he has much in common with
figures such as George Washington, Rosa Parks, Woodrow Wilson, and
Adolph Hitler, all of whom changed the modern world with their
risk-loving decisions.
In The Power of Nothing to Lose, award-winning economist William
Silber explores the phenomenon in politics, war, and business, where
situations with a big upside and limited downside trigger gambling
behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail how
the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of
Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy
may not look like a Hail Mary, but it was. Washington said days before
his risky decision, "If this fails I think the game will be pretty well
up." Rosa Parks remained seated in the white section of an Alabama bus,
defying local segregation laws, an act that sparked the modern civil
rights movement in America. It was a life-threatening decision for her,
but she said, "I was not frightened. I just made up my mind that as long
as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue, so I had
nothing to lose."
The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a
better place, but demagogues have inflicted great damage with Hail
Marys. Towards the end of World War II, Adolph Hitler ordered a
desperate counterattack, the Battle of the Bulge, to stem the Allied
advance into Germany. He said, "The outcome of the battle would spell
either life or death for the German nation." Hitler failed to change the
war's outcome, but his desperate gamble inflicted great collateral
damage, including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in
Europe.
Silber shares these illuminating insights on these figures and more,
from Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump, asylum seekers to terrorists and
rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that downside protection
fosters risky undertakings, that it changes the world in ways we least
expect.
