oil is the lifeblood of the World's economy. It was a critical element
in two World Wars and in the Cold War, and, as recent events in the
Middle East confirm, people are willing to fight for it. The cheap
energy it provides, especially for transport and agriculture, was one of
the main factors that made possible the economic prosperity and growth
that the World has enjoyed for the past fifty years and more. People
rely on it everywhere, and in many forms, and they have become so
accustomed to its ready availability that they take it for granted. To
conceive of a world without traffic jams and airliners is unthinkable,
and while not so obvious, oil lies behind every supermarket shelf,
fuelling the tractor that ploughs the field and the delivery van that
brings the consumer his food. Yet everyone knows that it is a finite and
irreplaceable commodity, formed long ago in the geological past. What no
one knows is just how finite it is. This book is an effort to try to
answer that question: not in detail, but at least in orders of
magnitude. More useful than the figures themselves is the discussion of
the elements involved in addressing the subject. While it is impossible
to predict the precise pattern of future production, which will be
affected by many unforeseeable factors, one can at least begin to think
in terms of resource constraint instead of an ever expanding supply of
oil.