From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a
transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best
predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether
buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply
planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible
forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark
2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than
chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study
was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the
past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good?
And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a
masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results
of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good
Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary
people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a
former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of
the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten
other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even
beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to
classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us
how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the
first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the
future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs,
or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.
