Philip E Tetlock

(Author)

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionMP3 CD, 29 September 2015

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Language
English
Publisher
Audible Studios on Brilliance
Date Published
29 Sep 2015
ISBN-10
1511358491
ISBN-13
9781511358491

Description

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Product Details

Authors:
Philip E TetlockDan Gardner
Book Format:
MP3 CD
Country of Origin:
US
Date Published:
29 September 2015
Dimensions:
17.02 x 13.46 x 1.02 cm
ISBN-10:
1511358491
ISBN-13:
9781511358491
Language:
English
Weight:
68.04 gm

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