An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making
can get us into trouble--and why experience can't be replaced by rules,
procedures, or analytical methods
In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we
try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when
should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree
that for important decisions, we should follow certain
guidelines--gather as much information as possible, compare the options,
pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some
of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly
following procedures.
In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional
wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted
claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for
the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when
everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions
of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for
example, works if the information is accurate and complete--but that
doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk
calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment
houses.)
Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in
real-life settings. He provides many examples--ranging from airline
pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack
Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels--to make his
point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They
used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends.
We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for
complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell
us everything.
"I know of no one who combines theory and observation--intellectual
rigor and painstaking observation of the real world--so brilliantly and
gracefully as Gary Klein."
--Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink
