Predictably Irrational meets Moneyball in ESPN veteran writer and
statistical analyst Keith Law's iconoclastic look at the numbers game of
baseball, proving why some of the most trusted stats are surprisingly
wrong, explaining what numbers actually work, and exploring what the
rise of Big Data means for the future of the sport.
For decades, statistics such as batting average, saves recorded, and
pitching won-lost records have been used to measure individual players'
and teams' potential and success. But in the past fifteen years, a
revolutionary new standard of measurement--sabermetrics--has been
embraced by front offices in Major League Baseball and among fantasy
baseball enthusiasts. But while sabermetrics is recognized as being
smarter and more accurate, traditionalists, including journalists, fans,
and managers, stubbornly believe that the "old" way--a combination of
outdated numbers and "gut" instinct--is still the best way. Baseball,
they argue, should be run by people, not by numbers.?
In this informative and provocative book, teh renowned ESPN analyst and
senior baseball writer demolishes a century's worth of accepted wisdom,
making the definitive case against the long-established view. Armed with
concrete examples from different eras of baseball history, logic, a
little math, and lively commentary, he shows how the allegiance to these
numbers--dating back to the beginning of the professional game--is
firmly rooted not in accuracy or success, but in baseball's irrational
adherence to tradition.
While Law gores sacred cows, from clutch performers to RBIs to the
infamous save rule, he also demystifies sabermetrics, explaining what
these "new" numbers really are and why they're vital. He also considers
the game's future, examining how teams are using Data--from PhDs to
sophisticated statistical databases--to build future rosters; changes
that will transform baseball and all of professional sports.
