This book is designed to support you in making difficult decisions in a
more - tional way. Based on an established theoretical foundation, it
shows that simple requirements concerning rational behavior lead to a
general calculus of determ- ing optimal decision alternatives; the book
then goes on to present methods and instruments useful for the practical
implementation of these concepts. Psychological research has uncovered a
multitude of systematic cognitive - ases associated with the intuitive
decision process, especially concerning the f- mation of preferences and
subjective probability judgments for uncertain events. These
developments have elevated prescriptive decision theory to the status of
an important discipline with increasingly strong practical ties -
nowadays, even m- agers are concerned with decision trees, probability
distributions and risk profiles. There is also a wide range of software
available on the market to aid users with the use of the instruments. We
would like to convince you, by help of the many pr- tical questions and
case studies included with most chapters, that the material c- ered is
not purely an academic diet but also of high practical nutritional
value. The mindset suggested by the theory as an approach for decision
problems will surely be of much use to you both in your private and
professional life, even if you do not apply the presented methods of
decision making support in every little - tail.
