Oil is the lifeblood of modern industrial economies. Petroleum powers
virtually all motorized transport, which in turn enables most economic
activities and provides mobility for citizens. But oil is a finite
resource that is steadily depleting. In the past decade, the phenomenon
of global peak oil - the fact that annual world oil production must at
some point reach a maximum and then decline - has emerged as one of the
twenty-first century's greatest challenges. South Africa imports over
two-thirds of its petroleum fuels, and history has shown that oil price
shocks generally translate into a weakening currency, rising consumer
prices, increasing joblessness and a slow-down in economic activity.
This book examines the implications of peak oil for socioeconomic
welfare in South Africa and proposes a wide range of strategies and
policies for mitigating and adapting to the likely impacts. It contains
a wealth of data in tables and figures that illustrate South Africa's
oil dependencies and vulnerabilities to oil shocks. The material is
presented from a systems perspective and is organized in key thematic
areas including energy, transport, agriculture, macro-economy and
society. The study highlights the risks, uncertainties and difficult
choices South Africa faces if it is to tackle its oil addiction, and
thereby serves as an example for researchers, planners and policy-makers
in the developing world who will sooner or later confront similar
challenges. This case study brings a fresh southern perspective to an
issue of global importance, and shows how the era of flattening and then
declining global oil supplies may be a pivotal period in which either
the project of industrialization progressively runs out of steam, or
societies are able to undertake a proactive transition to a more
sustainable future.
