This book does not give a prediction of what the efficiency will be of
the energy use of industrial processes in the future. However, it does
give an exploration of limits to the efficiency of current processes and
an indication of what might be achieved if new technologies can be
developed. At the Department of Science, Technology and Society of
Utrecht University research had been done to the opportunities for
improvement of the energy efficiency in the short term since the 1980's.
This had resulted in a comprehensive database on energy efficient
measures. This database and a possible application are described in
Chapter 3 of this book. The use of the database induced new research
themes around efficiency improvement, e.g. concerning barriers for
implementation of measures. It was around 1993 that I did a preliminary
study to the potential for efficiency improvement in the long term.
Historical analysis had shown us that the short term potential stayed
constant over the years. It seemed to be replenished by the introduction
of new technologies. This lead to the question whether there are limits
to the efficiency, taking into account both thermodynamic considerations
and ideas on the development and dissemination of new technologies.