Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of
chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a
developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns
without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it
make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent
development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making
hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care?
What should scientists tell the public when - as occurred in L'Aquila,
Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California - there is a real but small risk of
an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,
earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices
poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or
flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed
hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great
damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert
limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of
the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural
hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis
to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different
options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because
mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the
results are often disappointing. This book uses general principles and
case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated
view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant
geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately.
Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to
confront the complex issues involved.
Readership Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students
interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues
relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or
graduate courses.
Additional resources can be found at: http:
//www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature
