Albert Aftalion's exploration into the theory of periodic, general
economic crises in an industrial economy outlines a conceptual framework
based upon the distinction between the structural conditions that make a
crisis possible and the historical triggers that give any particular
crisis its specific character. This distinction is key to Aftalion's
theory and policy of the medium term and makes his contribution a
forerunner of the principle of contextual emergence in complex dynamics.
This approach allows Aftalion to distinguish between different, but
hierarchically related, causal layers: (i) the fundamental relationship
between production and needs: capital formation is a necessary condition
in order to achieve an equilibrium between production and needs
compatible with increasing (or non-diminishing) per capita welfare; (ii)
the more historically specific causal layer at which the lengthening of
production processes as a result of the increasing utilization of fixed
capital items becomes a central feature and makes it necessary to allow
for adjustment periods during which the economic system is out of
equilibrium and lack of time co-ordination between production and needs
may generate crises; (iii) the most specific level of causation at which
different institutional arrangements (e.g., private- versus
social-ownership economy) determine the response patterns of individuals
and groups to the mismatches characterizing out-of-equilibrium
situations.
Aftalion's approach highlights causal pluralism in economic dynamics
while emphasizing that the different causal triggers are systematically
related to one another in a hierarchical way. This intertwining of
causal layers is especially relevant in the medium term, which makes the
context of medium-term policy decisions the most difficult to detect
and, at the same time, of critical importance to the success of policy
measures.
