This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license.
This volume presents an Empirical Model of Global Climate developed by
the authors and uses that model to show that global warming will likely
remain below 2°C, relative to preindustrial, throughout this century
provided: a) both the unconditional and conditional Paris INDC
commitments are followed; b) the emission reductions needed to achieve
the Paris INDCs are carried forward to 2060 and beyond.
The first section of the book provides a short overview of Earth's
climate system, describing and contrasting climatic changes throughout
the planet's history and anthropogenic changes post-Industrial
Revolution. The second section describes the climate model developed by
the authors (Canty et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013) and
contrasts the model with climate models used in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 Report. Chapter 3 examines both the
unconditional (i.e., firm commitments) and conditional Paris INDCs
(commitments contingent on financial flow and/or technology transfer)
through the lens of their climate model and concludes that if all of the
Paris INDCs are followed, then they are indeed a beacon of hope for
Earth's climate. The fourth part of the book offers a perspective of
energy needs and subsequent emissions reductions required to meet the
Paris temperature goals, illuminating challenges faced both in the
developing world and the developed world.
Throughout the book, easy-to-understand charts and graphics illustrate
concepts. The scientific basis of Chapters 2 and 3 was first presented
in a keynote session of the 96th Annual Meeting of the
American Meteorological Society in January, 2016.
