In the face of increasing complexity and uncertainty, planners, public
officials, and community residents need new tools to anticipate and
shape the future. Opening Access to Scenario Planning Tools examines the
current state of scenario planning and scenario planning tools that can
help communities and regions prepare for that future through a variety
of visioning, land use, transportation, and other planning efforts. A
unique opportunity presents itself to use the best and latest technology
to help citizens visualize the future of their cities and regions, so
that they might chart a course for sustainable growth.
Decisions about the future are often controversial due to competing
economic interests, different cultural values, and divergent views about
property rights and the role of government. Broader and more effective
civic engagement is needed to ensure community support for decisions
about development and other land-related policies, and public
investments. The traditional predict-and-plan paradigm is inadequate to
address all of these challenges. The authors identify a clear need to
develop and implement planning tools and processes that foster
anticipation and adaptation.
Three concepts will be critical to the scenario planning and
tool-building process: collaboration, capacity building, and creation of
an open environment for engagement. Collaborative problem solving
facilitates resolution of interrelated issues that cannot be resolved by
one organization alone. Capacity building is needed to enable
individuals and organizations to apply scenario planning methods and
tools effectively to their specific planning concerns. An open
environment for information sharing and education will help accelerate
the use and improvement of scenario planning tools in multiple settings.
The emergence of new and improved scenario planning tools over the last
10 years offers promise that the use of scenario planning can increase
and that the goal of providing open access to the full potential of
scenario planning tools is within reach. This report recommends seven
immediate actions that could be implemented quickly to facilitate this
goal. A group of tool developers, planners, and other users convened by
the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Sonoran Institute,
including the co-authors of this report, are already working to advance
these efforts.
