This monograph surveys the present state of Monte Carlo methods. we have
dallied with certain topics that have interested us Although personally,
we hope that our coverage of the subject is reasonably complete; at
least we believe that this book and the references in it come near to
exhausting the present range of the subject. On the other hand, there
are many loose ends; for example we mention various ideas for variance
reduction that have never been seriously appli(: d in practice. This is
inevitable, and typical of a subject that has remained in its infancy
for twenty years or more. We are convinced Qf: ver- theless that Monte
Carlo methods will one day reach an impressive maturity. The main
theoretical content of this book is in Chapter 5; some readers may like
to begin with this chapter, referring back to Chapters 2 and 3 when
necessary. Chapters 7 to 12 deal with applications of the Monte Carlo
method in various fields, and can be read in any order. For the sake of
completeness, we cast a very brief glance in Chapter 4 at the direct
simulation used in industrial and operational research, where the very
simplest Monte Carlo techniques are usually sufficient. We assume that
the reader has what might roughly be described as a 'graduate' knowledge
of mathematics. The actual mathematical techniques are, with few
exceptions, quite elementary, but we have freely used vectors, matrices,
and similar mathematical language for the sake of conciseness.