Curated by the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences
from their COVID-19 Math Modelling Seminars, this first in a series of
volumes on the mathematics of public health allows readers to access the
dominant ideas and techniques being used in this area, while indicating
problems for further research. This work brings together experts in
mathematical modelling from across Canada and the world, presenting the
latest modelling methods as they relate to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A primary aim of this book is to make the content accessible so that
researchers share the core methods that may be applied elsewhere. The
mathematical theories and technologies in this book can be used to
support decision makers on critical issues such as projecting outbreak
trajectories, evaluating public health interventions for infection
prevention and control, developing optimal strategies to return to a new
normal, and designing vaccine candidates and informing mass immunization
program.
Topical coverage includes: basic
susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) modelling framework
modified and applied to COVID-19 disease transmission dynamics;
nearcasting and forecasting for needs of critical medical resources
including personal protective equipment (PPE); predicting COVID-19
mortality; evaluating effectiveness of convalescent plasma treatment and
the logistic implementation challenges; estimating impact of delays in
contact tracing; quantifying heterogeneity in contact mixing and its
evaluation with social distancing; modelling point of care diagnostics
of COVID-19; and understanding non-reporting and underestimation.
Further, readers will have the opportunity to learn about current
modelling methodologies and technologies for emerging infectious disease
outbreaks, pandemic mitigation rapid response, and the mathematics
behind them. The volume will help the general audience and experts to
better understand the important role that mathematics has been playing
during this on-going crisis in supporting critical decision-making by
governments and public health agencies.
