o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication
is to present recent developments in international com- modity market
model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the
research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by
the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the
University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been
possible with- out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of
the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to
express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck,
J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive
contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii
INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and
global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling
approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for
commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution
of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context
there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the
analysis of international primary com- modity markets.