Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline.
Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural
scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes
in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that
combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the
problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times
expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar
research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in
history.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social,
political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors
affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic
assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between
population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates
these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics
predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical
patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that
certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of
accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of
state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data
confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively
expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where
imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of
Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can
significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
