A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may
occur over the next fifty years--whether sudden and cataclysmic
world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends.
Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal
discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world
changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include
volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist
attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political
shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav
Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes
and trends the next fifty years may bring.
Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and
human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the
transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing
economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental
change--in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual
change--and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global
warming.
Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of
either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues
that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and
minimize the risk of catastrophe.