Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk
analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk
models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real
problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic
thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to
support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent
developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and
treatment.
New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:
- An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe
risk based on research carried out in recent years.
- A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the
understanding of risk.
- Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to
measure/describe uncertainties.
- A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance
of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that
the subjective probabilities are based on
- A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise)
probabilities instead of exact probabilities.
In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for
example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As
Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle.
Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding,
conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates,
graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering,
finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers
facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
