Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's
landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty,
probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't
understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan,
Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change
the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas
Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite
raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black
Swan-has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we
believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive and
deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the
most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world of
trading-Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of
the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an
entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual
issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance
on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have
grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball
legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient
world's wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the
Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to
understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls
victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the
lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time-he
embodies the "survival of the least fit." Such individuals attract
devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But
no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the
genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in
random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the
vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by
Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
