By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our
understanding of the present and better plan for the future.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of
historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense
reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we
understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in
turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic
systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet
policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how
people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often
seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been
unable to identify these "influencers" in advance. And although
successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have
succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of
the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for
experienced professionals.
Watts' argument has important implications in politics, business, and
marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.