We present certain empirico-statistical methods for the analysis of
narrative and nu- merical data extracted from different texts of
historical character such as chronicles or annals. They are based on
several statistical principles worked out by the author, and originally
reported at the Third International Vilnius Conference on Probability
Theory and Mathematical Statistics in 1981. The principal results were
published in the papers [15]-[32], [293]-[299], [304]-[319]
and in the book: A. T. Fomenko, Methods for Statistical Analysis of
Narrative Texts and Applications to Chronol- ogy, Moscow Univ. Press,
Moscow, 1990 (in Russian). See also Part 1. The methods are applied to
the problem of correct dating of the events in ancient and medieval
history. These results induce conjectures on the redating of some
important ancient historical events. Generally speaking, we might say
that the commonly accepted "Modern Text- book" of ancient and medieval
European, Mediterranean, Egyptian and Middle Eastern history is a
fibered (layered) chronicle obtained by gluing together four nearly
identical copies of a shorter "original" chronicle. The other three
chronicles are obtained from the "original" chronicle by redating and
renaming the events de- scribed in them; we rigidly move the "original"
chronicle in its entirety backwards in time by approximately 333, 1053
and 1778 years. Thus, the full "Modern Textbook" can be reconstructed
from its smaller part, namely from the "original" chronicle for the
9-17th cc. A.D. See Appendix 1, Figs. 101-104.