Economists, decision analysts, management scientists, and others have
long argued that government should take a more scientific approach to
decision making. Pointing to various theories for prescribing and
rational- izing choices, they have maintained that social goals could be
achieved more effectively and at lower costs if government decisions
were routinely subjected to analysis. Now, government policy makers are
putting decision science to the test. Recent government actions
encourage and in some cases require government decisions to be evaluated
using formally defined principles 01' rationality. Will decision science
pass tbis test? The answer depends on whether analysts can quickly and
successfully translate their theories into practical approaches and
whether these approaches promote the solution of the complex, highly
uncertain, and politically sensitive problems that are of greatest
concern to government decision makers. The future of decision science,
perhaps even the nation's well-being, depends on the outcome. A major
difficulty for the analysts who are being called upon by government to
apply decision-aiding approaches is that decision science has not yet
evolved a universally accepted methodology for analyzing social
decisions involving risk. Numerous approaches have been proposed,
including variations of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and
applied social welfare theory. Each of these, however, has its
limitations and deficiencies and none has a proven track record for
application to govern- ment decisions involving risk. Cost-benefit
approaches have been exten- sively applied by the government, but most
applications have been for decisions that were largely risk-free.