Life is fundamentally uncertain. We do not know whether it will rain,
whether the market will go up or down, whether our unhealthy eating
choices will have serious consequences, or whether terrorists will
strike our city. To make matters worse, we also lack a tried and true
procedure for evaluating the likelihood of such events. Yet we are
required to make decisions great and small that depend on these events.
In the absence of certainty or an objective procedure for estimating
probabilities, we must rely on our own reasoning, which a great deal of
research has shown to be less rational than we would like to believe.
In Critical Thinking, Varda Liberman and Amos Tversky examine how we
make judgments under uncertainty and explain how various biases can
distort our consideration of evidence. Using everyday examples, they
detail how to examine data and their implications with the goal of
helping readers improve their intuitive reasoning and judgment. From the
courtroom to the basketball court, cholesterol count to the existence of
the supernatural, Liberman and Tversky explore the fundamental insights
of probability, causal relationships, and making inferences from
samples. They delve into the psychology of judgment, explaining why
first impressions are often wrong and correct answers go against our
intuitions. Originally written in Hebrew and published by the Open
University in 1996, Critical Thinking is an essential guide for
students and interested readers alike that teaches us to become more
critical readers and consumers of information.
