This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It
presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate
demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require
fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical
frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive
knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics.
The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations,
especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable
estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population.
The book contains more traditional applications such as the
Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR
method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples
are provided for every application; along with excel files containing
data and program code, which are accessible online.
Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of
demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and
historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting
school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy,
stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration
and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR.
This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced
undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be
used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography,
business and economic forecasting and market research.
