Willard Wells

(Author)

Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (2009)Paperback - 2009, 30 June 2009

Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (2009)
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Part of Series
Springer Praxis Books
Part of Series
Popular Science
Part of Series
Springer Praxis Books / Popular Science
Print Length
212 pages
Language
English
Publisher
Praxis Publications Inc
Date Published
30 Jun 2009
ISBN-10
0387098364
ISBN-13
9780387098364

Description

This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years.

Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.

The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

Product Details

Author:
Willard Wells
Book Edition:
2009
Book Format:
Paperback
Country of Origin:
DE
Date Published:
30 June 2009
Dimensions:
24.33 x 16.76 x 1.22 cm
ISBN-10:
0387098364
ISBN-13:
9780387098364
Language:
English
Location:
New York, NY
Pages:
212
Weight:
476.27 gm

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